{"id":1751,"date":"2025-01-13T23:10:56","date_gmt":"2025-01-13T23:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/insights\/acompanhando-o-crescente-otimismo-do-boe-para-o-ultimo-trimestre-de-2024\/"},"modified":"2026-03-06T18:50:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-06T18:50:40","slug":"acompanhando-o-crescente-otimismo-do-boe-para-o-ultimo-trimestre-de-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/acompanhando-o-crescente-otimismo-do-boe-para-o-ultimo-trimestre-de-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Acompanhando o crescente otimismo do BoE para o \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"

Acompanhando o crescente otimismo do BoE para o \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024 <\/h2>\r\n\r\n

\"aHR0cHM6Ly9pbnNpZ2h0cy5jZWljZGF0YS5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3Zpc3VhbC9jOGY2Nzg4ZS0xOTdkLTQ0ZDYtOTEyZC1jODYxYmIyNzkyYjUucG5nP2NvcHlfaWQ9NDMyMDAwODMtOGI4NC00MmVkLTlhNDYtZWUyMDhlYTFlOTRmJmZhbGxiYWNrPSUyRmltYWdlJmFjY2Vzc190b2tlbj1VMkZzZEdWa1gxOFdJa29SMFJzQkhUM2FMc3lLaXdWa2RsNCUyRnhabmM4dEdsb3dIb2tyTUFpN0dGMExsVFpOJTJGc3JtcE1GSlMlMkJuQlclMkZxc1JaZ0hsU3gzWGF2ZXBBdG55d3lOMXlvRHVPMDVjJTNE\" <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Os pre\u00e7os dos ativos do Reino Unido est\u00e3o sendo impactados em tempo real pela liquida\u00e7\u00e3o global de t\u00edtulos, mas a economia brit\u00e2nica subjacente est\u00e1 consideravelmente mais forte do que o Banco da Inglaterra (BoE) esperava h\u00e1 um ano. <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Mapeamos as previs\u00f5es recentes do BoE para o crescimento econ\u00f4mico do quarto trimestre de 2024. Em fevereiro, o banco central previa uma estagna\u00e7\u00e3o relativa, com um aumento de 0,5% no PIB real ano a ano para o trimestre que acabou de terminar. Em novembro, o BoE projetava um crescimento de 1,66% nesse mesmo per\u00edodo. (Vale notar que isso representa uma desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 previs\u00e3o mais otimista de agosto, de 2,1%). <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Os n\u00fameros oficiais do PIB para o quarto trimestre ser\u00e3o divulgados em 13 de fevereiro, poucos dias ap\u00f3s o BoE atualizar sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o. Um ritmo de crescimento de 1,66% marcaria uma acelera\u00e7\u00e3o substancial em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com o crescimento de 0,85% registrado no terceiro trimestre. <\/p>\r\n\r\n

A previs\u00e3o do BoE para o PIB \u00e9 mais otimista do que a proje\u00e7\u00e3o semanal do nowcast do PIB da CEIC, que aponta para um crescimento de 1,3% no quarto trimestre. <\/p>\r\n\r\n

A diferen\u00e7a entre as duas estimativas pode estar relacionada \u00e0s diferentes frequ\u00eancias das atualiza\u00e7\u00f5es. O nowcast da CEIC, baseado em aprendizado de m\u00e1quina, \u00e9 atualizado semanalmente, enquanto a proje\u00e7\u00e3o mais recente do BoE tem quase dois meses de idade na data da nossa publica\u00e7\u00e3o. <\/p>\r\n\r\n

O BoE atualiza suas previs\u00f5es de PIB, infla\u00e7\u00e3o e taxa de desemprego trimestralmente, divulgando estimativas em fevereiro, maio, agosto e novembro. Adicionamos dois gr\u00e1ficos finais que mostram como o banco central tem demonstrado maior otimismo com rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0 desacelera\u00e7\u00e3o dos pre\u00e7os e \u00e0 redu\u00e7\u00e3o do desemprego. <\/p>\r\n\r\n

A CEIC mant\u00e9m um arquivo dessas previs\u00f5es antigas porque esses dados s\u00e3o cruciais para testar modelos estat\u00edsticos. Eles permitem que analistas realizem simula\u00e7\u00f5es hist\u00f3ricas sem a distor\u00e7\u00e3o conhecida como look-ahead bias (quando informa\u00e7\u00f5es conhecidas apenas em retrospectiva s\u00e3o inclu\u00eddas). <\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"aHR0cHM6Ly9pbnNpZ2h0cy5jZWljZGF0YS5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3Zpc3VhbC9mMTU4ZGIxOC02N2JiLTRkMTEtYjA3ZS0zNDFhNjFhODM0NDMucG5nP2NvcHlfaWQ9YWRkMTQ4NGUtNTI5NC00M2YxLWIxM2MtZGM3ZDRiNTJiMzk5JmZhbGxiYWNrPSUyRmltYWdlJmFjY2Vzc190b2tlbj1VMkZzZEdWa1gxJTJCMlFPSVQ5WWFvREFJd2dTeTlRcXoxeUQzVUtMRGh4TjFORU9wYWdEWVBxMlRTJTJCdktzUnRrRzVTZiUyRjRvNFpDak9ZaU5uN3BSbEIzMDZXSUZUY0ZzdzN6JTJCckxtaDU3WDZvJTNE\" <\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Se voc\u00ea deseja ler este relat\u00f3rio na sua vers\u00e3o mais completa e entender melhor como extrair os dados mais relevantes para seus projetos, convidamos voc\u00ea a fazer uma demonstra\u00e7\u00e3o gratuita na CEIC EPFR hoje mesmo<\/a>!  <\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

1. Conhe\u00e7a tamb\u00e9m: Dados macro e microecon\u00f4micos<\/a> em que voc\u00ea pode confiar <\/p>\r\n\r\n

2. Blog CEIC:<\/strong> Latest Insights<\/a>  <\/p>\r\n\r\n

3. Conhe\u00e7a um relat\u00f3rio CEIC | EPFR exemplo:  2024: Um ano de surpresas nos \u00edndices econ\u00f4micos e de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do Citigroup<\/a> <\/p>\r\n\r\n

4. Cliente CEIC?<\/strong> Leia este Report completo aqui<\/a>.  <\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Fontes: CEIC EPRF Insights \u2013 Industry Report. <\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O Banco da Inglaterra (BoE) revisou para cima suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o crescimento do PIB no quarto trimestre de 2024, passando de 0,5% em fevereiro para 1,66% em novembro. Apesar de ainda abaixo da previs\u00e3o otimista de agosto (2,1%), o crescimento esperado representa uma acelera\u00e7\u00e3o significativa em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao terceiro trimestre (0,85%).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":1752,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","cpa_authors":[],"cpa_override_default":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[899],"tags":[],"product":[1050],"region":[956],"class_list":["post-1751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","product-ceic","region-brazil"],"yoast_head":"\nAcompanhando o crescente otimismo do BoE para o \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024 - ISI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/acompanhando-o-crescente-otimismo-do-boe-para-o-ultimo-trimestre-de-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Acompanhando o crescente otimismo do BoE para o \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O Banco da Inglaterra (BoE) revisou para cima suas proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o crescimento do PIB no quarto trimestre de 2024, passando de 0,5% em fevereiro para 1,66% em novembro. 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