{"id":3014,"date":"2025-02-14T20:32:22","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T20:32:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/insights\/eleicoes-na-alemanha-economia-em-crise-e-a-fuga-de-investidores\/"},"modified":"2025-02-14T20:32:22","modified_gmt":"2025-02-14T20:32:22","slug":"eleicoes-na-alemanha-economia-em-crise-e-a-fuga-de-investidores","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/perspectivas\/eleicoes-na-alemanha-economia-em-crise-e-a-fuga-de-investidores\/","title":{"rendered":"Elei\u00e7\u00f5es na Alemanha: Economia em Crise e a Fuga de Investidores"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Com PIB em retra\u00e7\u00e3o e sa\u00edda de capitais, o pessimismo econ\u00f4mico molda o cen\u00e1rio pol\u00edtico antes das elei\u00e7\u00f5es de fevereiro<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Os alem\u00e3es votar\u00e3o em 23 de fevereiro em meio a um crescimento econ\u00f4mico fraco, que tem ficado atr\u00e1s dos pares europeus e afetado o humor nacional. No setor corporativo, os altos pre\u00e7os da energia ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia (e as san\u00e7\u00f5es que se seguiram) prejudicaram o modelo de manufatura orientado para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o da Alemanha.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Parte desse pessimismo pode ser vista nos fluxos de fundos internacionais acompanhados pela EPFR (como a CEIC, uma empresa da ISI Markets). As sa\u00eddas totais de a\u00e7\u00f5es alem\u00e3s chegaram a US$ 7,3 bilh\u00f5es no ano passado \u2013 quase 2% do total de ativos sob gest\u00e3o (AUM) na Alemanha. Como mostra nosso gr\u00e1fico, apenas o Reino Unido registrou sa\u00eddas maiores entre as principais economias europeias.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nosso terceiro gr\u00e1fico acompanha o pessimismo cont\u00ednuo em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s a\u00e7\u00f5es alem\u00e3s ao longo dos \u00faltimos anos. O \u00faltimo ano de entradas constantes foi 2021; tanto 2022 quanto 2023 come\u00e7aram positivamente antes de terminar com sa\u00eddas l\u00edquidas de capital. E 2024 nunca chegou a registrar entradas l\u00edquidas.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No entanto, 2025 come\u00e7ou de forma positiva. As entradas l\u00edquidas acumuladas em fundos de a\u00e7\u00f5es atingiram US$ 835 milh\u00f5es at\u00e9 11 de fevereiro.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tamb\u00e9m podemos ver o desinteresse dos gestores de portf\u00f3lio internacionais pela Alemanha ao analisar as aloca\u00e7\u00f5es em diferentes classes de ativos. A participa\u00e7\u00e3o das a\u00e7\u00f5es alem\u00e3s nos fundos que investem na Europa, excluindo o Reino Unido, caiu de 25% em mar\u00e7o de 2021 para apenas 20% no final de 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ainda assim, h\u00e1 alguns sinais recentes de otimismo. A participa\u00e7\u00e3o da Alemanha em tr\u00eas classes de ativos selecionadas (global ex-EUA, Europa e Europa ex-Reino Unido) aumentou cerca de um ponto percentual nos \u00faltimos meses de 2024.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enquanto isso, como mostra nosso gr\u00e1fico final, o PIB real da Alemanha vem se contraindo de forma anualizada h\u00e1 um ano e meio. O setor industrial, crucial para o pa\u00eds, est\u00e1 em decl\u00ednio desde junho de 2023.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Diante do pessimismo econ\u00f4mico e das preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a imigra\u00e7\u00e3o, espera-se amplamente que o partido de extrema direita Alternativa para a Alemanha (AfD) se torne a segunda for\u00e7a pol\u00edtica mais poderosa, atr\u00e1s apenas dos Democratas-Crist\u00e3os. O Partido Social-Democrata do chanceler Olaf Scholz, cujo governo de coaliz\u00e3o colapsou em novembro, pode cair para o terceiro lugar.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Um fim negociado para a guerra entre R\u00fassia e Ucr\u00e2nia poderia reduzir os pre\u00e7os do g\u00e1s, melhorar os fundamentos das empresas alem\u00e3s e trazer de volta os fluxos de portf\u00f3lio internacionais. No entanto, o pr\u00f3ximo governo em Berlim ainda enfrentar\u00e1 press\u00e3o para reduzir a burocracia e melhorar o ambiente de neg\u00f3cios a fim de atrair empresas em crescimento e inova\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/api\/v1\/visual\/e75d302d-1616-4536-be9b-8fd749e036ce\/clipboard_image_data.png?data_id=28995695-dabf-47d5-8eca-119cb56301d0\" alt=\"aHR0cHM6Ly9pbnNpZ2h0cy5jZWljZGF0YS5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3Zpc3VhbC9lNzVkMzAyZC0xNjE2LTQ1MzYtYmU5Yi04ZmQ3NDllMDM2Y2UucG5nP2NvcHlfaWQ9Mjg5OTU2OTUtZGFiZi00N2Q1LThlY2EtMTE5Y2I1NjMwMWQwJmZhbGxiYWNrPSUyRmltYWdlJmFjY2Vzc190b2tlbj1VMkZzZEdWa1gxOHIlMkJZN092Rjk4dExLSDY0UmlQWm9rdnJwdlJtZEJWRGNSMVBoSlZ4bnczczNZJTJGM2tYRVlJNVJQbFphSFQ5TXVWYTh1VmE2TTBzV1hTcUlzR1NYZUVBd2pWUHNkV2ZHJTJGdyUzRA==\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Se voc\u00ea deseja ler este relat\u00f3rio na sua vers\u00e3o mais completa e entender melhor como extrair os dados mais relevantes para seus projetos, convidamos voc\u00ea a fazer uma <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/pt\/ceic-request-a-demo\">demonstra\u00e7\u00e3o gratuita<\/a> na CEIC EPFR hoje mesmo! \u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">1. <strong>Blog CEIC:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/pt\/our-insights-data-bytes\">Latest Insights<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">2. Conhe\u00e7a um relat\u00f3rio CEIC | EPFR exemplo: \u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/pt\/blog\/2024-um-ano-de-surpresas-nos-%C3%ADndices-econ%C3%B4micos-e-de-infla%C3%A7%C3%A3o-do-citigroup\">2024: Um ano de surpresas nos \u00edndices econ\u00f4micos e de infla\u00e7\u00e3o do Citigroup<\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">3. <strong>Cliente CEIC?<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/Germans-go-to-the-polls-amid-economic-gloom--which-has-shown-up-in-equity-outflows\/views\">Leia este Report completo aqui.<\/a> \u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fontes: CEIC EPRF Insights \u2013 Industry Report.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Os alem\u00e3es votar\u00e3o em 23 de fevereiro em meio a um crescimento econ\u00f4mico fraco, que tem ficado atr\u00e1s dos pares europeus e afetado o humor nacional. No setor corporativo, os altos pre\u00e7os da energia ap\u00f3s a invas\u00e3o da Ucr\u00e2nia pela R\u00fassia (e as san\u00e7\u00f5es que se seguiram) prejudicaram o modelo de manufatura orientado para exporta\u00e7\u00e3o da Alemanha.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","cpa_authors":[],"cpa_override_default":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[880],"tags":[],"product":[],"region":[],"class_list":["post-3014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-perspectivas"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin  - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Elei\u00e7\u00f5es na Alemanha: Economia em Crise e a Fuga de Investidores - ISI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/perspectivas\/eleicoes-na-alemanha-economia-em-crise-e-a-fuga-de-investidores\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Elei\u00e7\u00f5es na Alemanha: Economia em Crise e a Fuga de Investidores\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Os alem\u00e3es votar\u00e3o em 23 de fevereiro em meio a um crescimento econ\u00f4mico fraco, que tem ficado atr\u00e1s dos pares europeus e afetado o humor nacional. 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