{"id":3173,"date":"2025-04-24T19:29:25","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T18:29:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/insights\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\/"},"modified":"2026-03-07T21:10:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-07T21:10:11","slug":"global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Economy: PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto)"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong data-start=\"172\" data-end=\"240\">Nowcasting do PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto)<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">???? <strong data-start=\"245\" data-end=\"271\">Destaques do conte\u00fado:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"272\" data-end=\"390\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"274\" data-end=\"390\">???? <strong data-start=\"277\" data-end=\"328\">Economia desacelera, mas sem sinais de recess\u00e3o<\/strong>: nowcast da CEIC projeta crescimento de 2,2% no 1\u00ba trimestre.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"391\" data-end=\"510\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"393\" data-end=\"510\">???? <strong data-start=\"396\" data-end=\"440\">Modelo com IA aponta dados em tempo real<\/strong>: proje\u00e7\u00f5es baseadas em indicadores alternativos e de alta frequ\u00eancia.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"511\" data-end=\"621\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"513\" data-end=\"621\">???? <strong data-start=\"516\" data-end=\"556\">Mercado reage \u00e0 suspens\u00e3o de tarifas<\/strong>: decis\u00e3o de Trump impulsiona a\u00e7\u00f5es e alivia previs\u00f5es negativas.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"622\" data-end=\"759\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"624\" data-end=\"759\">???? <strong data-start=\"627\" data-end=\"668\">Fed dividido sobre o rumo da economia<\/strong>: proje\u00e7\u00f5es regionais variam bastante \u2014 destaque para o modelo GDPNow, com vi\u00e9s pessimista.<\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"760\" data-end=\"878\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"762\" data-end=\"878\">???? <strong data-start=\"765\" data-end=\"798\">Infla\u00e7\u00e3o e confian\u00e7a em xeque<\/strong>: expectativas inflacion\u00e1rias sobem e confian\u00e7a do consumidor cai drasticamente.<\/p><\/li><\/ul>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/clipboard_image_data-24.png\" alt=\"aHR0cHM6Ly9pbnNpZ2h0cy5jZWljZGF0YS5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3Zpc3VhbC8xMjUwN2NiOS1mOTQzLTRmYzctOGFiZS1jODNhYTkzOTIyYjMucG5nP2NvcHlfaWQ9OWMyYmQwYzAtMzQ1NC00YTg1LWE1ZWUtMmIyMzY3NzFkZTBlJmZhbGxiYWNrPSUyRmltYWdlJmFjY2Vzc190b2tlbj1VMkZzZEdWa1gxOGdSY21STFJwQ1Rxck1MMHBCTVd1NVNIbCUyRmxOZFg5RGR1aU00QzUlMkZ2VzhybktqYTV3Qk53dGdwMHlTMmt5dCUyQlZlQXowRVJSVUM1U2x2dFEwUkhWTjN0MGI1YXhYc3QzQSUzRA==\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As pol\u00edticas comerciais do governo Trump levantaram alertas entre analistas que preveem uma poss\u00edvel recess\u00e3o. No entanto, o nowcast da CEIC mostra que, embora a economia dos EUA tenha desacelerado levemente, ainda n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinais de contra\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nosso nowcast propriet\u00e1rio, baseado em um modelo de machine learning, utiliza indicadores alternativos e de alta frequ\u00eancia. A estimativa atual aponta para um crescimento de <strong data-start=\"1303\" data-end=\"1333\">2,2% no primeiro trimestre<\/strong>, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com <strong data-start=\"1353\" data-end=\"1389\">2,5% no \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024<\/strong>. Para o trimestre corrente, a previs\u00e3o indica um ritmo de crescimento de <strong data-start=\"1463\" data-end=\"1471\">2,4%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A suspens\u00e3o da maioria das tarifas do &#8220;Dia da Liberta\u00e7\u00e3o&#8221; por Trump ajudou a impulsionar o mercado de a\u00e7\u00f5es e a aliviar parte das previs\u00f5es mais pessimistas. No dia 9 de abril, o Goldman Sachs deixou de considerar a recess\u00e3o como seu cen\u00e1rio-base, embora ainda atribua <strong data-start=\"1743\" data-end=\"1776\">45% de chance a uma contra\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> econ\u00f4mica.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Os dados oficiais do PIB do 1\u00ba trimestre ser\u00e3o divulgados em <strong data-start=\"1850\" data-end=\"1865\">30 de abril<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Em um de nossos gr\u00e1ficos, comparamos as previs\u00f5es de crescimento do 1\u00ba trimestre feitas por diferentes filiais regionais do Federal Reserve. Em geral, essas estimativas s\u00e3o ligeiramente mais otimistas do que o nowcast da CEIC. <strong data-start=\"2095\" data-end=\"2144\">A exce\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e9 o modelo GDPNow do Fed de Atlanta<\/strong>, que prev\u00ea uma contra\u00e7\u00e3o de <strong data-start=\"2173\" data-end=\"2182\">-2,4%<\/strong> \u2014 n\u00famero distorcido por um pico nas importa\u00e7\u00f5es de ouro. Ap\u00f3s ajuste, o modelo aponta uma contra\u00e7\u00e3o mais moderada de <strong data-start=\"2300\" data-end=\"2309\">-0,3%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Em nossos gr\u00e1ficos finais, incorporamos indicadores ainda mais voltados para o futuro. A preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o crescente de que as tarifas impulsionem a infla\u00e7\u00e3o e desacelerem o crescimento se reflete na forte deteriora\u00e7\u00e3o da confian\u00e7a do consumidor, conforme a \u00faltima pesquisa da Universidade de Michigan. O dado mais alarmante: os consumidores esperam que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o nos pr\u00f3ximos 12 meses atinja <strong data-start=\"2700\" data-end=\"2708\">6,7%<\/strong>, o maior patamar desde 1981.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Apesar de Wall Street n\u00e3o prever um n\u00famero t\u00e3o elevado, muitos economistas alertam que expectativas como essa podem se tornar <strong data-start=\"2865\" data-end=\"2885\">autorrealiz\u00e1veis<\/strong>. A alta dos pre\u00e7os tamb\u00e9m pode limitar a capacidade do <strong data-start=\"2941\" data-end=\"2960\">Federal Reserve<\/strong> de estimular a economia por meio de cortes na taxa de juros.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Segundo a ferramenta <strong data-start=\"3044\" data-end=\"3056\">FedWatch<\/strong> da CME, os traders agora apostam que o pr\u00f3ximo corte de juros ocorrer\u00e1 em <strong data-start=\"3131\" data-end=\"3146\">18 de junho<\/strong> \u2014 uma mudan\u00e7a em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao in\u00edcio de abril, quando o corte parecia mais incerto. Essa previs\u00e3o tamb\u00e9m difere do cen\u00e1rio de fevereiro, quando os mercados s\u00f3 previam cortes mais para o final do ano.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/clipboard_image_data-25.png\" alt=\"aHR0cHM6Ly9pbnNpZ2h0cy5jZWljZGF0YS5jb20vYXBpL3YxL3Zpc3VhbC8yNzk5ZTMzYS0wMjRkLTQxMzQtYTZmZC0yYjljMDgwOWM3ZDAucG5nP2NvcHlfaWQ9NGRiNDZjN2YtYTU3Zi00MjU4LThlNGQtNDBlYTA0Yjk0OTk2JmZhbGxiYWNrPSUyRmltYWdlJmFjY2Vzc190b2tlbj1VMkZzZEdWa1gxJTJCb2JZVDUwdEZRRHdFOGJTZXJtU1lCVFJoZDNqT1U5MVk0Y0lDZllZeGVOc3UlMkJ4JTJGbUxmVGRlQ05xODNzbzNOR1I0ZGVJOVExWEtUQ1J2WW95SWxPNFBJTXFJTkFCNnR2USUzRA==\" \/><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">???? <strong data-start=\"3354\" data-end=\"3379\">Explore mais da CEIC:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3381\" data-end=\"3424\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3384\" data-end=\"3424\">???? <strong data-start=\"3387\" data-end=\"3400\">Blog CEIC<\/strong>: <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ceicdata.com\/pt\/our-insights-data-bytes\" data-start=\"3402\" data-end=\"3422\" rel=\"noopener\">Latest Insights<\/a><\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3425\" data-end=\"3537\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3428\" data-end=\"3537\">???? <strong data-start=\"3431\" data-end=\"3460\">Conhe\u00e7a um relat\u00f3rio CEIC<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/info.ceicdata.com\/pacote-de-graficos-sobre-nordeste-brasil\"><em data-start=\"3462\" data-end=\"3535\">Explorando CEIC \u2013 Pacote de Gr\u00e1ficos sobre a Regi\u00e3o Nordeste Brasileira<\/em><\/a><\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3538\" data-end=\"3598\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3541\" data-end=\"3598\">\u2705 <strong data-start=\"3543\" data-end=\"3560\">Cliente CEIC?<\/strong> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/insights.ceicdata.com\/Nowcasting-Trumps-first-quarter-of-GDP-no-recession-yet\" data-start=\"3561\" data-end=\"3596\" rel=\"noopener\">Leia este Report completo aqui<\/a><\/p><\/li><li class=\"\" data-start=\"3599\" data-end=\"3668\"><p class=\"\" data-start=\"3602\" data-end=\"3668\">???? <strong data-start=\"3605\" data-end=\"3629\">Ainda n\u00e3o \u00e9 Cliente?<\/strong> <a class=\"\" href=\"https:\/\/info.ceicdata.com\/book-a-demo-brazil-pt\" data-start=\"3630\" data-end=\"3668\" rel=\"noopener\">Agende uma Demonstra\u00e7\u00e3o Gratuita!<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">???? <strong data-start=\"3673\" data-end=\"3683\">Fontes<\/strong>: <em data-start=\"3685\" data-end=\"3718\">CEIC Insights \u2013 Industry Report<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As pol\u00edticas comerciais do governo Trump levantaram alertas entre analistas que preveem uma poss\u00edvel recess\u00e3o. No entanto, o nowcast da CEIC mostra que, embora a economia dos EUA tenha desacelerado levemente, ainda n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinais de contra\u00e7\u00e3o. Nosso nowcast propriet\u00e1rio, baseado em um modelo de machine learning, utiliza indicadores alternativos e de alta frequ\u00eancia. A estimativa atual aponta para um crescimento de 2,2% no primeiro trimestre, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 2,5% no \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024. Para o trimestre corrente, a previs\u00e3o indica um ritmo de crescimento de 2,4%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","cpa_authors":[],"cpa_override_default":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[899],"tags":[],"product":[1050],"region":[956],"class_list":["post-3173","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","product-ceic","region-brazil"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin  - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Global Economy: PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto) - ISI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Global Economy: PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As pol\u00edticas comerciais do governo Trump levantaram alertas entre analistas que preveem uma poss\u00edvel recess\u00e3o. No entanto, o nowcast da CEIC mostra que, embora a economia dos EUA tenha desacelerado levemente, ainda n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinais de contra\u00e7\u00e3o. Nosso nowcast propriet\u00e1rio, baseado em um modelo de machine learning, utiliza indicadores alternativos e de alta frequ\u00eancia. A estimativa atual aponta para um crescimento de 2,2% no primeiro trimestre, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 2,5% no \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024. Para o trimestre corrente, a previs\u00e3o indica um ritmo de crescimento de 2,4%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ISI\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-24T18:29:25+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-07T21:10:11+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BLOGSOCIAL2028v129_2-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"627\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"CEIC\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"CEIC\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/913dfa93820eb94b3849b4ff3fd6cd86\"},\"headline\":\"Global Economy: PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto)\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-24T18:29:25+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-07T21:10:11+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":590,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/BLOGSOCIAL2028v129_2-1.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Publications\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/isimarkets.com\\\/pt-br\\\/publications\\\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\\\/\",\"name\":\"Global Economy: PIB dos EUA sob Trump: sem recess\u00e3o (por enquanto) - 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No entanto, o nowcast da CEIC mostra que, embora a economia dos EUA tenha desacelerado levemente, ainda n\u00e3o h\u00e1 sinais de contra\u00e7\u00e3o. Nosso nowcast propriet\u00e1rio, baseado em um modelo de machine learning, utiliza indicadores alternativos e de alta frequ\u00eancia. A estimativa atual aponta para um crescimento de 2,2% no primeiro trimestre, em compara\u00e7\u00e3o com 2,5% no \u00faltimo trimestre de 2024. Para o trimestre corrente, a previs\u00e3o indica um ritmo de crescimento de 2,4%.","og_url":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/pt-br\/publications\/global-economy-pib-dos-eua-sob-trump-sem-recessao-por-enquanto\/","og_site_name":"ISI","article_published_time":"2025-04-24T18:29:25+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-03-07T21:10:11+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":627,"url":"https:\/\/isimarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/BLOGSOCIAL2028v129_2-1.png","type":"image\/png"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"CEIC","Est. tempo de leitura":"3 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