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https://isimarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/E688AAE5B18F2026-01-132018.03.54.png19381034智利总统大选12月14日落幕，反移民保守派候选人何塞・安东尼奥・卡斯击败共产党候选人珍妮特・哈拉，成功当选该国新一届总统。由于市场普遍押注卡斯将获胜（截至12月2日，博彩平台Polymarket显示其胜选概率达96%），智利资产价格已大幅反弹。卡斯承诺将在18个月内削减60亿美元支出，并降低企业税以重振投资。这一表态扭转了现任总统加夫列尔·博里奇执政初期的资本外流局面。本文使用CEIC深度合作伙伴EPFR的独家资金流数据，揭示投资者仓位配置的决定性转变。如以下图表所示，债券投资者自2025年中期开始积极买入智利资产