US consumer pessimism, waning Trump approval weigh on Republican midterm prospects

With inflation high, the Iran war continuing and US consumers pessimistic, Donald Trump faces the Nov. 3 midterms less popular than Joe Biden was at the same point in his presidency.

Consumers have been downbeat for most of Trump’s second term. The University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 48.0 in October from 71.7 in January 2025 (also well below the equivalent Biden-era reading).

Trump’s approval in RealClearPolling’s average has sunk to 40%, versus the 42% Biden held ahead of the 2022 midterms – when the Democrats lost the House (though retained the Senate). A similar or worse outcome for the Republicans in 2026 would make it harder for Trump to advance his policy agenda; the President has promised a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if the GOP keeps control of both chambers.