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ISI Global Macro Outlook – October 2026

  • ISI
  • 1 min read

The global outlook is being shaped by three defining themes: persistent energy-market disruption, a renewed tightening cycle led by developed markets, and the widening impact of AI investment across economies. While growth remains resilient and capital continues to flow into risk assets, performance is becoming increasingly uneven across regions and sectors.

Our latest Global Macro Outlook examines how these forces are reshaping markets, highlighting the economies benefiting from AI-driven trade and investment, those facing higher energy and borrowing costs, and the growing divergence between export-led and domestically driven growth models.

The central message: global growth is holding up, but its sources are diverging. Understanding where growth comes from, and what keeps it going, will be key to the next phase of the macro cycle.

Key Takeaways

  1. Middle East energy disruption remains the defining global macro risk.
  2. Developed markets are leading the monetary tightening cycle, pushing DM-EM policy gaps to historic lows.
  3. Growth remains resilient, with activity expanding across most major economies.
  4. AI investment is creating new winners, while Europe risks being left behind.
  5. Long-term borrowing costs continue to rise across most G20 economies.
  6. Capital flows still reflect risk appetite, with investors favoring AI-linked markets.
  7. In the US, strong AI investment is masking weaker underlying fundamentals.
  8. Europe continues to grapple with higher energy costs and competitive pressure from China.
  9. In China, strength in technology and exports contrasts with domestic weakness.
  10. Across emerging markets, AI and semiconductor exports are increasingly driving growth.

    Growth remains resilient, but the drivers of that are changing. From AI-driven investment and rising borrowing costs to shifting capital flows and regional divergence, today’s market leaders are not always where investors expect.

    Download the full report to explore the trends shaping the next phase of the global macro cycle.