China’s housing market: resale weakness, some positive signs for new builds

China’s property market isn’t moving in a unified cycle. We’ve added granular data that drills down into local trends, including the distinction between newly built housing and the market for resale homes.

While the secondary market is tied to softer household spending, new-build figures have important read-throughs for developers and policy support. They can also reflect shortages of top-quality projects in supply-constrained markets; Shanghai likely stands out on this basis.

The nation’s healthiest new-build markets are led by Hangzhou and Chengdu. Meanwhile, “new-build discount” cities, where citywide average resale transactions are more expensive, include Beijing and Guangzhou. This could reflect the fact that their new supply is often on the outskirts, while the existing-home sample includes many mature, central districts.