Daily payment card data from the world’s fuel stations point to war-driven uptick in the CPI

By Ian Lim

From the first Gulf War in 1990 to the current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the quickest impacts from geopolitical shocks often show up in gasoline prices and then feed into inflation.

We can observe this phenomenon in near real time thanks to our daily and weekly payment-card data for major economies.

Our first chart uses the US as an example. For most of 2024 and 2025, retail gasoline prices were falling year-on-year. At the time of publication, February was the last print for the US consumer price index and its transport segment; the gasoline sub-component was down 5.5% from a year earlier.

To see what’s been happening in March, we can observe total daily card spending at US gas stations, as well as “volume-adjusted” card spend from Facteus. (Adjusting for volume helps isolate pump prices from consumer behavior, zeroing in on how much fuel drivers are using — rather than potentially confusing a price spike for higher demand.*)

On a volume-adjusted basis, card spending on gasoline returned to inflationary territory as of mid-March, while the deflationary trend on total spending has almost gone into reverse. Given past correlations, expect fuel inflation prints in March to see a significant uptick.

For a sense of the long-term correlation between oil prices and national inflation prints, our second chart compares the rates of change for Brent crude and gasoline CPI across the Group of 7 developed economies. Most of the G7 saw a mild-to-modest deflation in fuel prices supported by crude oil prices since mid-2023 — indeed, lower fuel prices helped keep a lid on overall inflation during that period.

Returning to payment cards, we tapped alternative weekly datasets from Fable to visualize spending at the pump in Germany and the UK. (Given the more prominent role of diesel in Europe, both the card and CPI datasets account for all automotive fuels, not just gasoline.)

While 2024-25 trends were similar, it’s notable that on an annualized basis, German drivers appear to be spending sharply more on fuel than their British counterparts in the most recent data.

Our final chart addresses Turkey and taps weekly card data from the central bank. Like our US chart, the service-station spending can also be volume-adjusted.

Relative to recent trends, Turkey is notable for a limited uptick in fuel spending — with consumers somewhat cushioned by the nation’s “sliding scale” system whereby the government gives up tax revenue to smooth prices. Turkey also potentially benefits from its pipeline from Iraq, which is currently unable to export oil via the Strait of Hormuz.

*To be sure, as a necessity more than a luxury in the US, gasoline spending at the pump tends to be relatively inelastic in the short term — i.e.: cheaper fuel prices do not significantly increase consumption volume, and vice versa.