Home>News & Insights>Publications>Warsh takes over the Fed as US rate outlook does a U-turnWarsh takes over the Fed as US rate outlook does a U-turn CEIC Publications Ana Cuello Franco 29.05.2026 under a minute read Donald Trump’s war with Iran has turned around US interest-rate dynamics. Markets are pricing in tighter policy from the president’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve, even after years of Trump berating the previous chair for not cutting rates. Kevin Warsh took over the Fed on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell. His first FOMC meeting and rate decision as chair is scheduled for mid-June. Warsh is likely to stand pat, but observers will be watching his language for signs of a “hawkish hold” – especially in the wake of hot inflation prints lately. According to our calculations using the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, markets are betting on a Warsh hike by December – and potentially even two hikes this year. As recently as mid-February, the market was expecting cuts rather than tightening. Tags Developed MarketsUnited StatesRecent Posts Global Navigator | Investors turn back the page during the second week of October EPFR 19.10.2026 Publications Flows into EPFR-tracked funds had a late-July flavor during the latest reporting period, with several groups posting their largest inflows Read More China avoids the global surge in long-bond yields CEIC 16.10.2026 Insights By Ranping ChenAs global inflation persists and markets fret about fiscal strains in developed markets, US 10-year Treasury yields have Read More Credit-card data shows Americans are cutting back – especially on restaurants and groceries CEIC 16.10.2026 Insights Daily payment-card data from @Facteus is showing that inflation-hit Americans appear to be cutting back spending – especially when it comes to fast-food restaurants. Read More Sorry, no articles match the current filters. Sorry, no articles match the current search query.