Home>News & Insights>Publications>Warsh takes over the Fed as US rate outlook does a U-turnWarsh takes over the Fed as US rate outlook does a U-turn CEIC Publications Ana Cuello Franco 29.05.2026 under a minute read Donald Trump’s war with Iran has turned around US interest-rate dynamics. Markets are pricing in tighter policy from the president’s choice to lead the Federal Reserve, even after years of Trump berating the previous chair for not cutting rates. Kevin Warsh took over the Fed on May 22, succeeding Jerome Powell. His first FOMC meeting and rate decision as chair is scheduled for mid-June. Warsh is likely to stand pat, but observers will be watching his language for signs of a “hawkish hold” – especially in the wake of hot inflation prints lately. According to our calculations using the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool, markets are betting on a Warsh hike by December – and potentially even two hikes this year. As recently as mid-February, the market was expecting cuts rather than tightening. Tags Developed MarketsUnited StatesRecent Posts Auto sales pick up in Malaysia & Thailand, but are hit by scandal shock in Philippines CEIC 29.05.2026 Publications Auto sales trends in Southeast Asia have been quite country-specific, despite the energy shock hitting drivers in oil-importing countries. In Read More Mexican trade picks up despite Trump CEIC 29.05.2026 Publications Mexican exports have been accelerating for months, despite uncertainty over the fate of the nation’s US trade deal. The April Read More India, South Korea stand out as the oil shock hits Asia harder CEIC 29.05.2026 Publications Since the start of the Persian Gulf conflict, oil prices have remained elevated and volatile. But the pass-through to the Read More Sorry, no articles match the current filters. Sorry, no articles match the current search query.