High-frequency Philippine inflation indicator suggests prices are picking up again

Elevated inflation has weighed on growth in the Philippines since the outbreak of war between the US and Iran. With crude surpassing $100 a barrel again, inflation looks likely to pick up after moderating in July and August.

We’ve compiled a high-frequency index of Philippine food prices to assess where the next inflation print might be headed before official data is released. Tapping bi-weekly prices for 20 food items across eight categories (grain, livestock meat, eggs, vegetables, fruit, cooking oil and sugar), our index broadly tracks the methodology for the food component of official CPI.

For Sept. 15, our food index ticked upward to a 5.5% yearly pace from 4.6% two weeks earlier. And food is especially important for overall inflation trends; only transport costs and household utilities contribute as much to the CPI.