Latin American daily card transactions suggest inflation is depressing consumer spending

Spanish banking giant Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) operates across Latin America, compiling daily credit-card spending metrics that give early insights into official retail sales figures.

Reignited inflation seems to be weighing on consumers in several markets — even before the most recent global energy shock.

Mexico’s official retail trade figures had shown gradual improvement over 2025 – especially since October. But card consumption patterns have taken a nosedive since December, especially in real terms.

Peru had also seen an upturn in late 2025, but inflation ticked sharply higher last month – hit by the global increase in oil prices as well as a domestic gas crisis and low crop yields. Card transactions are slipping downward.

We’ve added three charts on the special case of Argentina, where hyperinflation has been tamed by Javier Milei’s reforms. Price increases remain elevated on a global basis, however, making it key to highlight the inflation-adjusted figures (nominal card-spending growth is running at a 19% pace). We’ve also used a shopping center sales survey as our official metric.

Argentine card transactions have seen a significant, continued deterioration since Q1 2025. With the exception of entertainment and healthcare, card spending has usually been declining for all categories since the middle of last year.

Colombia is still demonstrating relatively strong consumption. While BBVA reported a brief December year-on-year downturn, this was likely attributable to high base effects from an unusually strong December 2024.