Global Market Outlook – June 2026

For macro strategists and portfolio managers, the Middle East shock has shifted the global macro landscape.  The Hormuz closure has reignited inflationary pressures through higher energy, shipping and food costs, and the second-order effects are only beginning to surface. With global central banks broadly shifting toward tightening and divergence widening across markets, those with the right data are already repositioning.

ISI Markets’ Global Macro Outlook maps exactly where the exposures lie — and where they don’t, drawing on granular, high-frequency and alternative data across supply chains, shipping, energy and macro indicators.

Our central finding: the shock is global, but the exposure lies with local conditions. Imported energy reliance, external financing vulnerability and pre-existing inflation pressures determine who feels it most — and that’s exactly where positioning decisions will be made or lost.

Key Takeaways

1.  The Hormuz closure has taken roughly a fifth of globally traded oil offline, with contagion spreading fast into shipping, fertilizer and food prices.
2. Exposure is not shared equally — imported energy reliance, external financing vulnerability and pre-existing inflation are the fault lines that matter.
3. The stagflation risk is back. IMF revisions and our proprietary nowcasts are pointing in the same direction. 
4.  Rate cut expectations are being priced out. Central banks are turning hawkish again with meaningful divergence across markets. 
5.  Europe’s manufacturing giants face severe exposure, as renewed energy price shocks hit already fragile industrial sectors. 
6. EM is splitting in two: exporters have a buffer; importers with weak currencies and fragile external balances do not.
7. The global cycle is fragmenting. Local conditions now determine who absorbs shocks — and who doesn’t.

For macro strategists and multi-strat desks navigating this environment, the gap between exposed and insulated economies will define where risk-adjusted returns are found in the months ahead. The full report sets out the data behind each of these signals.