Philippine households gird themselves after Hormuz oil shock

Heavily reliant on imported energy, the Philippines took the hardest hit from Hormuz-related oil disruptions.

We’ve recently added a wide range of consumer survey data. In this case, the Philippine central bank’s surveys on savings and sentiment demonstrate the hit to confidence: shoppers expect inflation to make everything more expensive. And for the first time since the pandemic, Philippine households are net pessimistic on their near-future expectations.

Consider the Saving Intention Index: a negative reading indicates that more surveyed households expect to save less (or have lower capacity to save) compared to those who intend to save more. This was indeed the case for years during and after the pandemic.

By early 2026, the index had turned positive: more households were intending to save money. That trend has now come to an abrupt halt.